When the wind changes, it is time to adjust the sails
After the boom comes judgement: when the market shifts, it is time to analyse and act
The data are no longer whispering; they are shouting. In 2025, many hotel destinations began showing clear signs of fatigue during the peak season. Pricing is showing cracks, demand is slowing and pick-up calendars are no longer filling with the ease of previous seasons. The wind has changed.
You do not have to look far for the causes: inflation, inflation and more inflation. Hoteliers are trying to protect their margins while guests are trying to fill their shopping baskets. Add an excess supply of tourist apartments and you have a summer cocktail that is hard to digest.
Even so, many are still looking at the figures for summer 2023 or 2024 as if they were a prophecy: “Nothing is wrong; it always comes back.” Confidence in better times is understandable, but it can also be dangerous.
I hear all sorts of stories these days: hotels doing well and hotels doing badly. The million-dollar question is: “Did we really not see the trend changing months ago, perhaps even a year or two earlier?” I do not believe in coincidences when there is such a wide gap in how people perceive the peak season.
Those who did their homework—or had the room to do it—have probably weathered the storm. This is not just a decision for the Revenue Manager or Commercial Director; it is a question of company culture. Businesses need to allow data-led work and recognise that a timely ADR reduction or a small distribution change can be vital to protecting, or even improving, profitability. There is little point in leaving the bait on the hook and waiting forever for the bell to ring; it may never ring.
The summit is comfortable, but it does not last forever
Chema Herrero explained it clearly: when you are at the top, you need to be more prepared than ever. Not necessarily to keep climbing, but to manage the descent. The good years have created inertia, dulled our vigilance and filled many dashboards with green.
It is time to get up, wash our faces and get to work.
As Javier Ortiz pointed out in Habitación 61, this is not a general downturn, but a set of specific signals we must not ignore: ADR falling in destinations where it once seemed impossible, slower pick-up, more last-minute bookings, shorter booking windows and price elasticity making itself felt again. The market no longer accepts every rate, and the data are there for anyone willing to interpret them strategically rather than nostalgically.
But no, things are not that bad
We should say this too: the figures are not bad. Quite the opposite. We have come through years when summer was the lifeline rescuing mediocre results. Thanks to sustained work across the public and private sectors, many destinations have broken that dependence. Seasonality has eased. The sector has become more professional. Tourism is starting to look more like a stable industry than a seasonal roulette wheel.
That is great news. It means this change in the cycle has found us in a different position from previous times. We are not starting from zero. We know how to sell in April, October and December. And we know how to do it with data, product and strategy.
What you cannot see from reception
From the outside, a hotel may look full while its margins are shrinking. Dependence on OTAs grows, acquisition costs soar, promotions cannibalise more than they contribute and guests—more price-sensitive than before—compare more, book later and expect more.
The answer is not simply to cut prices. It is to truly understand guest behaviour, segment precisely, invest in loyalty and strengthen brand value. It means using data, not just producing reports.
Towards planned optimism
Remembering where we have come from is essential if we are to look to the future with optimism. Not the naive kind that expects everything to fix itself, but an active optimism that pushes us to improve the shoulder and low seasons, rebalance demand sources and make our commercial work even more professional.
The wind has changed, but this is not a storm: it is a new direction. A hotel that understands this now will be able to sail with greater stability, higher profitability and fewer surprises.
Waiting in the harbour for the north wind may sound romantic, but meanwhile others are already turning, adjusting their sails and heading towards real opportunities.
Turn data into profitable decisions
If you need to anticipate changes in demand, adjust rates and improve the profitability of your hotel, chain or professionally managed accommodation portfolio, explore my hotel Revenue Management service or tell me about your situation. We will analyse the data and turn it into concrete commercial decisions.